Is it really true that you should go to college after you graduate from high school because a college degree opens up doorways to high-paying careers anymore? If you read trending social media posts, you would understand that more and more people perceive college to be nothing more than an expensive racket, almost a scam. Many youngsters are embracing the trades after graduating from high school. So, does that mean that college enrollments are dropping? I am going to use stats to answer that question in this article.
The Recent Figures Aren’t Encouraging
Yes, the most recent stats regarding college enrollment for 17-19 year-olds are a bit grim. The Northeast has a high concentration of liberal arts colleges, traditionally a hotspot for older teens to attend. These institutions of higher education have seen enrollment drop by 4% over 12 years–from 637,000 in 2012 to 612,000 in 2024.
The drop may be small, but it has already prompted many liberal arts colleges across America to shut their doors forever. The reason? They are no longer able to remain profitable. As examples, Wells College in New York and Goddard College in Vermont closed for good in 2023. They couldn’t afford to stay afloat financially anymore because they weren’t getting enough graduates.
Demographic Decline is Partly to Blame
The number of babies born in America began to decrease sharply during the Great Recession, which started around 2007 and lasted until 2008. Birth rates have remained low since then. Sure, the pandemic brought a temporary reprieve, but the rise in birth rates was barely noticeable and short-lived. Data analyzed by the Centers for Disease Control reflect that trend.
Many demographers anticipate that American universities will experience a long and steep decline in enrollment beginning this year. Newly analyzed data indicate that the decline will likely last for years, if not a for a few decades. A higher education consulting firm, Ruffalo Noel Levitz, scrutinized the latest census numbers published and discovered something grisly.
The decline may get slightly better in the early 2030s, but it will start to decline even faster by 2033. Experts forecast that the year 2039 will see an overall drop of 15% or about 650,000 enrolled students, as compared to 2025.
The Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE) published a report in late 2024. Its findings were astounding, and not in a good way either. There will be far fewer students graduating from high school for each consecutive year after 2025. By 2041, there will be 13% fewer potential college candidates. That represents an overall drop of almost 500,000.
Did Colleges Actually Shoot Themselves in the Foot?
It’s not just your imagination–college is getting more expensive and fast. Your jaw may actually drop in awe and disgust when you ask people who went to college in the 1960s and even the 1970s how little they paid for their degrees. Back then, college was virtually free. Here are some interesting stats that I found that illustrate how much college costs have skyrocketed in the recent past.
College tuition rose about 1,200% from 1980 to 2010. If you just said, “Like WOW!!” You’re not alone. There is no job in any field that I can think of that offers pay increases of that much in 30 years. So clearly, the cost of a college degree has greatly and rapidly gone up much faster than inflation.
Add to that the fact that having a college degree often means that students have to take out pricey loans and the fact that a college degree no longer guarantees finding a job after graduating, and it’s not surprising that many young people and their families are questioning if going to college and getting a degree is even worth it anymore.
In 2021, college students graduated with an average debt of $1.7 trillion. That number has probably increased noticeably since the pandemic. That’s a lot of debt for graduates who may never find a good-paying job.
There’s also in interesting development in the AI era. More and more employers value having actual work experience over a degree. After all, a degree doesn’t tell young professionals what to do when ‘the shit hits the fans’ on the job–a few years of continued and actual experience in a particular field does. Indeed, many young graduates are finding that it’s extremely difficult to find a job, much less a quality one, without some formal experience.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York recently did a study and its findings were troubling and seemed to contradict the decades’ old saying, “A bachelor’s degree looks good, but a master’s degree looks even better…” About 41% of college graduates are working at Chipotle, or some other low-end job that doesn’t need a college degree.
College is No Longer As Appealing
If you are a college freshman and find that there are fewer young freshmen on your college campus, you know that it’s not your imagination. The decline is part of a greater structural change in American society where demographics and changing attitudes towards education are making many question the true value of a college degree.
